the immunity challenge

**insert devious plotting here**

**insert agreement along with attempt to be humorous by using Jed's name in vain here**

(though I've got some ideas already, of course)

OK, here's an idea that came about during a 3-way AIM session with Phil and Amy this morning. It was pretty funny, frankly when both of them IM'd me simultaneously and pretended to not also be talking to each other until I outed them. Funny stuff. What's being proposed by Phil (representing the Phil, Liz, Justin, and temporarily John, ruling party of ATCQ) and Amy (only person alive and present over at Uber), is some sort of three-way effort to minimize our points/years among the three tribes. Basically, orchestrate a tie amongst our three tribes to at least make a ZeHo shut out very likely.

We would do that by our three tribes always choosing "cooperate" with respect to each other, and then doing whatever we want in regard to ZeHo.

If it works, we might not do well because John H. could always hook up with Gavin in Zeho and work something out to lock in ATCQ. Also, ATCQ or Uber could mess with us by either choosing "defect" even once. Of course, we could also do that back if they were going along with things.

So, my sense is that such a plan requires too big of an alliance, despite the laudable goal of avoiding backstabbing.

Anyone else got any analysis or ideas.

-Brian

I agree, that seems way too large. I would rather make an alliance with one.

I guess an alliance with one, if it works, helps us some by minimizing the two tribes' points. I don't know what the strategy would be in playing the other two tribes (other than following the mathematically-derived strategies in the stuff Jed linked to).

Anyone got links to Zeho people? Dre, any chance of peeling off Gavin for our purposes?

-Brian

In addition to asking Dre about Gavin . . . Kurtis, is there any chance of hooking up with Precintprez? I might be able to get StarDancingGirl.

I know that working with Zeho would be tough, but it seems like the only way to get at ATCQ, which seems to be the biggest threat.

I guess we would need Zeho to post that they choose to "cooperate" with us each day. And, we'd do the same. And, I'm not sure the best way that they and we would play against ATCQ and Uber. We might also ask for Zeho to share their info with us on results against those other tribes each day, 'cause it might be helpful.

-Brian

And, if all else fails, here's a default strategy that would let us relax and not have to think too much from a review of the scientific literature, for whatever it's worth:

Unexpectedly, a very simple strategy did outstandingly well: cooperate on the first move and then copy your opponent's last move for all subsequent moves. This strategy was called 'Tit for tat' (TFT) and became the founder of an ever growing amount of successful strategies. In a similar competition with 62 contestants, TFT won again. It has three characteristics that account for its impressive performance: it is nice (cooperates on the first move), retaliatory (punishes defection in the prior move with defection) and forgiving (immediate return to cooperation after one C of the adversary).

although i like the idea of aligning with ZeHo, since they seem like the weakest team in this game, i dont trust precinctprez farther than i can throw him. I've played with him before, and i know he won't hesitate to play both sides.

I'm playing in a game right now with him, and we're both in the final 4, and he supposedly is with me, but originally we were up 4-2 in the final 6, but he conspired with the other 2 two vote off two people in our own alliance because he "never really was in an alliance with them, it was only with me" I know that is total bullshit, so i dont trust him.

but, that aside, i wouldnt mind aligning against ATCQ, they seem too strong.

That's really good info Kurtis. I guess we could hook up with Uber. Anyone else have thoughts about that?

By the way, I've been doing some more playing for the latest battle against Jed. You'll see it below...

OK, I have been talking to my boyfriend the game theorist (poli sci not computer geek) and he says the most important thing is to not let them lie first. As in, if we agree to cooperate with Uber Hybrid, and they defect, we're screwed because both teams will just defect the rest of the week and they're up 6 years on us that we can't get back.

Also, it is KEY that teams can't see what other teams are doing. We can lie about our alliances with other tribes and no one will know the difference.
OK, so- here's a thought I had. Brian, you're friends with Carissa. You could show her your post about how Phil and Amy wanted to conspire against ZeHo but you said no. That might convince her to cooperate for at least 1 day and give us an edge. You could save your IM conversations or emails to show people...or even competely fabricate correspondence (that is super, super evil, but I am not above it.)

**The main problem is that there is NO accountability for cooperation. I am not willing to cooperate with ANYONE out of just trust. We need some way to ensure that people really are going to cooperate- if they say they are and don't, there most be some out of game consequence (the in game consequence is we defect on them the whole week, but they're ahead so it doesn't matter). Like, they have to do something, we post something about them...do you understand what I'm saying?? Any thoughts about this?***

If we get some people to not rat on us the first day or two, we're ahead. But I predict everyone will be defecting on everyone by the 4th day.

TFT is ok, but because you can't make up years lost over time once everyone goes to all defecting, there's too short an amount of time to have trust. It only has value for a day or two.

(By the way, my boyfriend is pacing around going, "defect! defect! defect!" and some ranting about how the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line)

Andrea

There's something else you guys may not be realizing. We don't need to ally with the tribes we want to help out. We don't really care about ZeHo and Uber Hybrid, we just don't like ATCQ. So we need to form an alliance with them. Why? So we can have their trust for a while and then exploit it. (Of course, this relies on lying to them before they lie to us.) Just something to think about...Brian, you might be able to get to Phil, or I'm friends with Dan P. If we really want to shut down ATCQ (which I do), we need to pretend to be their friends. Who cares about anyone else? :evil:

Andrea

^---2 very good posts!

Andrea,

By that logic, which I'm buying entirely, it seems as though we should try for independently secret alliances--within the next 24 hours--with all three tribes, and then defect on all three for the first decision. In the ideal world, we get three "0"'s in the first competition and none of the others can catch up to us, unless one of the other tribes were willing to just hand over immunity to one of the others. Even if we don't get all three to "cooperate" on the first decision, we may still be up enough at the start to end up winners. Does that make sense?

-Brian

I agree: stab first and stab often.

we should try for independently secret alliances--within the next 24 hours--with all three tribes, and then defect on all three for the first decision.

I like this idea. The only downfall is if the other tribes talk and realize that we are playing both sides.

Yeah, I bet that with some work, I could have a pretty solid sense that Phil and Amy are working indepedently with me. I'd have to come up with reasons why each should do so, but that may not be tough. I don't have any sense at all about the inner workings of Zeho, and am especially skeptical with the info from Kurtis about psprecintprez. But, I'd be willing to approach Stardancinggirl (Carissa), with whom I seem to have some silly personal connection because of my unique silly position including inside info about her squad and personal friends, if Dre's sense is that that may be stronger than whatever she may be able to develop in the very short term with Gavin. Depending on prior interactions with each, it might be worth pursuing Kurtis-precintprez, Dre-Gavin, and Brian-Audrey proposals, in addition to Brian-Phil, Brian-Amy, and Brian-Carissa. Although, might also look suspicious. Hmmm.

-Brian

okay this challenge gets me edgy cuz i think the alliances we make will be undercut. I am just willing to go with all of your best judgement because i dont think trusting is the way to go.
zack

I agree with Zack. I'm nervous about this one.

-Brian

I might have Amy pretty confidently for a coop-coop deal through the first three days. She'll get back to me a little later.

I don't trust ATCQ/Phil anywhere near enough. They've put a lot of thought into it. There is apparently a big feeling amongst ATCQ members that they should allign with Uber to shut us out. Probably the best I can do is convince Amy not to let them do that and to defect against them on the first day.

I believe that neither has made any attempt to contact Zeho, and doesn't plan to.

So, we may just have to defect against everyone throughout unless something changes mid-game. My guess is that everyone may do the same and then all four will end up tied. Best case would be for that to be happening then on the last day we get Zeho to coop with us, I guess.

-Brian

Brian
Whatever I can do to help just let me know, i can be quite good at putting fear into people, this is a prison game after all.

Did anyone think of what I was saying earlier, any way to get some accountability that people will cooperate if they say they will?

I'm not really friends with Gavin. I'm closest here with Amy and Dan Pawson. But that still doesn't mean I trust them so terribly much.

The rules of this particular game are troublesome because there's such a huge gamble involved in cooperating and not telling on anyone. To tell you the truth, I don't think many tribes will cooperate with anyone all week; how we could convince someone to even for a day is tough.

Also, I was thinking we should NOT try to make all our alliances for the first day. Why? Because then we'll use up all our capital and no one will trust us all week. We could try to make a late-week alliance too by capitalizing on people getting nervous about their point totals. And of course, by alliance I mean, trick them into cooperating and really defect, or cooperate for 1 day and then defect. I don't know, this made more sense when I was thinking about it yesterday.

So it all comes back to accountability. If there isn't some way to ensure people will really do what they say, there is no incentive to cooperate. The threat of an 0-6 deficit with someone is just too much. A 4-4 score is way preferable, because there is a 0 deficit.

Any thoughts?

Andrea

So, we may just have to defect against everyone throughout unless something changes mid-game. My guess is that everyone may do the same and then all four will end up tied. Best case would be for that to be happening then on the last day we get Zeho to coop with us, I guess.

Yeah, I totally took your advice to heart Andrea. I brainstormed about out-of-round, uh, I mean out-of-game impacts to use to assure compliance/trust. That's why I think I can get Amy, because I have some influence that it turns out she's having trouble in her tribe with and needs (Audrey) --remind me to edit that out later-- . Phil's tougher. My threat to reveal his admission to me that ATCQ cheated effectively on challenge #1, or to tell stories about times he's made fun of and impersonated Amy to other coaches/judges --again that will need to be edited-- , was fun but naturally not significant enough.

-Brian ">

i like the idea of blackmail

I say we cooperate enough to get a lead and then defect the rest of the way

OK, ZeHo, through Carissa, has agreed to a first 3-day secret cooperation agreement with Ninja. I believe her. ZeHo has had no contact nor has been approached by either Uber or ATCQ. No one active in ZeHo has a comfortable contact in ATCQ were they to try to approach them themselves. Carissa and Psprecintprez talked today and plan to defect the entire game against uber and atcq. And to work with us seeing it as their only desparate hope to get back in the game. Psprecinctprez is especially nervous about his own position in the game due to his lack of personal contacts to members of other tribes and sees a temporary ninja alliance as his only way to have a chance in the game.

I really really do believe that, based on my conversation, ZeHo will follow through. I would suggest not breaking the agreement until day 3 at the earliest if they comply the first two. If they screw us day one, we won't be so far behind that we can't catch up. And, besides, the worst case would be advantaging ZeHo in the process (still not doing any benefit to ATCQ and Uber). So my advice at this point would be to post coop for ZeHo and defect on the other two for tonight.

Any other thoughts.

-Brian

if thats the best we've got, it sounds good to me.

Still waiting on Amy to get back to me. I guess the first goal is to make sure uber will defect against ATCQ; although, I'm pretty certain that'll happen. And, I'm sure ATCQ will defect against everyone.

-Brian

Brian, I think that sounds fine...I believe Carissa too. If worst comes to worst I'll call her up and make her promise on a Bible or something...">

See how the Amy thing goes...I'm encouraged at the thought that no one will cooperate with ATCQ, though if she's telling you she doesn't have an alliance with them she could be bluffing...

Andrea

OK, I gotta go in a minute, but I have a guarantee of a cooperate from uber for at least one game so we can both get ahead of ATCQ. Said I'd e-mail Amy back by 11:45 if she should switch back to defect. I'm really sure she'll do it. We could (1) do it, (2) lie, or (3) call it off. I gotta leave for a friend's house in a few then I'll be back around 11:15. What're your thoughts? I'm really sure she'll follow through and really sure she'll be pissed for a long time and could work with ATCQ if we lie. She hasn't talked to ATCQ all day and is leaving to go out for a couple hours now so won't be in contact. Hmmm.